Friday, December 28 2007
More On the Numbers Game
Tip o' the Porkpie to Jason and Larry Mac, our secret correspondents
Several readers have commented on my last article on numerical scoring for wine ratings. One, a noted physicist/mathematician and part-time Mad Scientist wrote,
A properly designed metric should span the range of things you're measuring, and do so without huge gaps, otherwise your scale appears to have more dynamic range than it really does, and this is not only misleading, it's illogical. It's purely an emotional response they're trying to elicit since we all associate 90s with getting an "A" in school. But, if everyone gets an "A", then what does an "A" really mean?
Excellent point--he goes on to say that because we never see scores below 80, it's actually an arbitrary 20 point scale with 80 points tacked on. Talk about grade inflation!
Another reader helpfully pointed out this article in the Washington Post. In addition to their dubious accuracy, Jane Black points out that the numbers are only valid if correctly applied:
A Food section spot check of 100 shelf talkers (10 each in 10 reputable wine shops in Washington, Maryland and Virginia) turned up 25 percent that did not truthfully represent the wines they advertised. Accuracy varied from shop to shop, but overall, 6 percent of the signs either advertised a score that was higher than the one the wine actually had received or invented a score for an unrated wine.
Nineteen percent referred to a different vintage from that of the wine for sale. A vintage mismatch could be chalked up to sloppiness rather than deliberate misrepresentation, but it can be just as misleading. In our checks, the vintage available was usually unrated or had received a lower score, though there were occasions when the actual wine displayed had received a higher rating. One of the most dramatic differences was with the 2005 Big House Red for sale at Rodman's in Rockville. The shelf talker, which referred to the 2004 vintage, boasted of 90 points from Wine Enthusiast. The 2005 actually received an 81 for its "simple and gluey-soft" flavors.
One could debate all day long whether this constitutes fraud, simple laziness on keeping the shelf talkers current, or some other cause, but the truth is, it's the simplicity of the system that allows for its abuse. A dramatically dumbed-down shortcut like 100 point ratings gives answers so simplified, they're valueless. Tacking on a little signboard with a number is no substitute for getting real help choosing your wine.
Thank goodness home winemakers aren't subject to the numbers game. Winexpert's marketing elves (which includes me) try to give full and helpful descriptions of our products, and we encourage all of our dealers to make and drink all of our wine kits (hey, it's a tough job, but somebody's got to do it) so they can discuss them with you, but at the end of the day we know that sometimes you're going to have to make a leap of faith that our wine will be as good as we say it will be--that's why we have the 100% satisfaction guarantee--no numbers, no fudging.
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